Developing A Causal Model for Private Sector Development Programs

This contribution to the Impact Assessment Primer Series demonstrates the usefulness of causal models in designing and implementing impact assessments of private sector development (PSD) programs and in reassessing and revising program design relative to its intended impacts. The paper draws on the case study of the PROFIT Zambia project to demonstrate what a causal model is, how it works, and what its benefits are. The paper also alludes to another benefit of the causal model: its usefulness in developing a program performance monitoring system. The remainder of this Primer Series paper addresses issues in constructing and using a causal model to aid in impact assessment design, including identification and selection of key outcome and impact indicators.